Big Thunder and Splash both get significant waits. Rope dropping Splash is probably the way to go as it's all the way at the back of the park. When you come out you'll probably see a few fantasyland walk-ons (we got Peter Pan walk-on immediately after rope dropping splash). If you do this, while walking to Splash you can be trying to get a 40th anniversary pass for Big Thunder, and you've knocked 2/3 on the head in less than an hour.
The gadget coaster will be a solid wait all day, but it moves quickly. We hit that after big thunder and waited about 45 minutes.
How our day went down:
Splash (rope drop)
Peter Pan (standby - walkon)
Big Thunder (40th)
Pinocchio (standby - 10 mins)
Gadget Coaster (Standby - 45 mins)
Roger Rabbit (standby - 30 mins)
Space Mountain (40th) - now closed
Haunted Mansion (40th)
Haunted Mansion (40th)
we lucked out and picked up a second pass while in the queue so figured it was worth it for the AC
Carousel (standby - 10 mins)
Snow White (Standby - 25 mins)
Small World (standby - 20 mins)
Pooh (standby - 30 mins - during parade)
B&TB (DPA)
Star Tours (40th)
Western Railroad (Standby - 15 minutes)
Tiki Room (Standby - 5 minutes)
Jungle Cruise (Standby - 20 minutes)
Pirates (Standby - 30 minutes)
Big Thunder (40th - night ride)
Splash (Standby - 15 mins)
(Happy 15 early entry got us the first two, and probably really helped with the first BT 40th pass - the 15 minutes doesn't let you ride anything though, so it only ensures you're front of the line when rides commence operations)