Depends on a lot of factors - including the person's drive and capability. Both the worker and the student can do worse, but they can also do better.
I've spitballed this with google, but gone with fairly reliable sources like Fair Work, ATO websites, and some recruitment websites discussing graduate salaries etc. I've made a couple of assumptions, and erred on the conservative side when it came to indexation.
Uni Graduate
Assumes a four year full time degree with no supplemental employment, working on the average degree cost per year from Canstar Blue. I'm aware that I haven't factored in any centrelink payments as the whole thing gets messy offering up options for whether the student lives with parents or away from home, whether their parents earn too much money ($60k is the lower level for income reduction) so obviously the 'rolling earnings' is the worst possible figure possible.
I used real indexation rates for the last 4 years, but the average of 4% per year wasn't historically accurate so I estimated a 2% ongoing indexation. Earnings for graduates varied according to Talent.com, but seemed to indicate a 10% growth per year with experience and promotion.
Retail worker
Assumes an 18 year old fresh out of high school with no prior employment experience - entry rate as a Junior Retail Assistant level 1, increasing with age to 21, and increasing retail level to maximum pay rate at level 8. I topped them out at the max retail pay rate and assumed they stayed in that job from that point. Naturally the award wage would increase with enterprise bargaining but there's already too many assumptions so i've left it as is.
TL:DR
Average four year uni degree can cost $131k before indexation
In the same four years your retail worker has earned $183k
Graduate starting salaries mean HECS\HELP repayments begin immediately upon entering the workforce
It takes 13 years out of high school before the Uni Graduate has cumulatively earned more than the retail worker
At that time, the graduate has paid $52k in repayments, but has only paid off $30k of the principal, due to indexation.
There's still 80% of their HECS\HELP debt remaining - which could take 10 or more years to pay off
You could absolutely do better than this. But you could also do far worse.
Everyone's mileage may vary and end of the day the figures below don't mean shit in the real world - just a fun little spreadsheet exercise to get the mind moving on a monday morning.