Skeeta

Coronavirus and theme parks

188 posts in this topic

Watching DW shares freefall after the inquest and now the Coronavirus makes a person wonder how it will affect the Australian theme parks. 🤔

Out of all the theme parks Ardent has been smashed on the market the most and considering Ardent has taken out massive loans already it could leave Ardent Leisure in a precarious position.

Village is also not untouched.   Village were in talks with multiple companies about being taken over.   Does this leave Village in a weaken position to negotiate from or maybe the interested companies will now see Village as a risk.

 

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14 minutes ago, Brad2912 said:

DW and SW will be hardest hit with no inbound Chinese tour groups allowed in. I expect the travel ban to be further extended too. 

I think Paradise Country will be hardest hit.

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1 hour ago, Skeeta said:

  Does this leave Village in a weaken position to negotiate from or maybe the interested companies will now see Village as a risk.

Of course not. Their Chief Operating Officer has told everyone there is nothing to worry about.

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Well one thing is for sure is that it is going to worse before it gets better. The effects could be quite severe in the short to mid term and there are some projections that show that August is going to be the peak for Coronavirus in Australia, the ripple effects could quite conceivably carry on until well into 2021. Lets hope that this is not borne out because we need our amusement industry to thrive with the lingering after effects of the TRR tragedy still being felt.

Edited by Jobe
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1 hour ago, Skeeta said:

Is Paradise Country even a theme park?  I thought it was a zoo.

It depends. If Adventure World is a theme park, then Paradise Country certainly is, simply by physical park location alone.

1 hour ago, Jordan M. said:

In somewhat related news

Is it though?

I'd disagree.

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15 minutes ago, AlexB said:

Is it though?

I'd disagree.

I would assume Skypoint's numbers (like DW's and MW's) have been heavily impacted by lack of overseas visitors (chinese in particular) due to CORVID-19. 
 
As far as I am aware they have never done such heavy F/B discounts previously or such a widespread "locals" offer.

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Still not as deadly as influenza. Mortality rate is lower too so far. 

Media will (and are) ride this into the ground using fear to make money. Everyone else will suffer and they will have an active hand in sending some businesses to the wall.

So that means we havent reached anywhere near peak yet.

The stock market is the greatest risk. If things keep falling, retirement/super savings are the least of our worries. Super funds are some of the largest private financers of infrastructure projects in the country. They have billions of dollars at their disposal and even the federal government go to them for loans. If we see another round of "corrections", what does it start to do if their own investments are being impacted and the economy is going backwards. Will they be so interested in making a couple hundred billion dollar investment in federal plans over the next 5 years? 

Edited by Levithian
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16 hours ago, Jordan M. said:

I would assume Skypoint's numbers (like DW's and MW's) have been heavily impacted by lack of overseas visitors (chinese in particular) due to CORVID-19. 
 
As far as I am aware they have never done such heavy F/B discounts previously or such a widespread "locals" offer.

However, we have two possible causes here - virus, or inquest. The stocks dropped mostly since the inquest findings were handed down, with virus impacts being felt in some way for the past month. It's at least arguable its unrelated

7 hours ago, Levithian said:

Still not as deadly as influenza.

No, however, from what I have read about Corona, it is more easily transmitted, which fudges the numbers of mortality. If 1 in 10 dies of corona, and 1 in 5 dies of the flu, the flu seems worse - but if 1 person gives the flu to 1.5 people on average, and one person gives corona to 2.5 people, then you end up with patient zero infecting more people, leading to more dead.

***Disclaimer - I don't have official numbers, and didn't have time to find them, so this is all just to demonstrate the difference between mortality rate and transmission rates, using the above *completely made up* infection rates.

image.thumb.png.a75483640b20175d1c288b3210b56dac.png

Based on those *completely made up rates* the first person to die is in the third transmission step of corona, but the fourth transmission step of the flu. By the 10th transmission step, almost 1500 would die by corona, and only 35 by the flu.

This is also assisted by the fact that we have strains of the flu every year, usually with only minor changes, so many of them have vaccinations ready, or that can be rapidly adjusted to suit. We know when the flu arrives - usually winter time, and we all get jabs and have posters and ads and signs reminding people to practice good hygiene. We also have governments that report health scares quickly, and listen to doctors, and act quickly and proactively to implement controls...

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Interestingly enough, just recieved an email update from Parksavers  on the effects of the Coronavirus on the 6 Disney theme park properties around the world.

Quote

So far Disney has closed down 3 of their 6 theme parks throughout the world:

  • Shanghai Disney
  • Tokyo Disney
  • Hong Kong Disney

The other 3 remain open:

  • Disneyland Resort – Anaheim, CA
  • Walt Disney World Resort – Orlando, FL
  • Disneyland Paris

We've been following the trends of the three theme parks that are still open and everything is pointing to a slow Spring Break season for the U.S. based parks and an overall drop in attendance for all three.

Virtual Queues:

Since its debut in late January at Disneyland, Rise of the Resistance has filled its virtual queue within 30 minutes or less. Most days, if the park opened at 8am, the queue would be filled by 8:15am. However, as of yesterday, the queue took several hours to fill after park opening, suggesting that there are much fewer park goers at this time.

While we are cautious about the Coronavirus, if you’re a Disney Theme Park fan, this Spring could be one of the best times to visit the parks if you’re up for it. With what could be historically low crowds, it could be one of the best times to visit in several years as park attendance has only continued to climb.

 

Tips For Traveling:

  1. Bring hand sanitizer – You spend all day touching hand rails, attraction seatbelts, tables, merchandize and more. You should be sanitizing your hands, especially before you eat. Check-out MoonKist Spray who has the best alcohol-free hand sanitizer in the business (not to mention one of the few websites that still have hand sanitizer available).
  2. Wash Your Hands – Honestly, this mainly applies to when you’re done using the bathroom but if you don’t bring hand sanitizer than you should be washing your hands more frequently. There’s always a restroom nearby so head on in and clean them hands!
  3. Avoid Your Tray Table – It’s THE dirtiest part of the plane if you find yourself flying for your trip. If you must use it, wipe it down with sanitizer or a cleaning wipe. These plastic tables are crawling with germs and should definitely not be used as a pillow without proper wipedown.
  4. Keep Your Kids Clean – It’s one thing to keep yourself clean but then your kids are all over you 😂. Keep their hands as clean as possible (easier said than done). Get into the habit of spraying everyone’s hands after riding an attraction and before eating meals.
  5. Cancel or Change If Needed – If the thought of traveling during coronavirus is weighing you down, change your trip! There’s no sense in going when all you’ll think about is the virus. Some people are okay with it and some aren’t. That’s fine. A lot of airlines are offering free changes right now and pretty much all Disney tickets are valid through the end of the year or beyond (be sure to check though). So if it just doesn’t feel right, make the change. There’s only one company who offers refundable Disneyland tickets and we would suggest buying through them.

There is some sound advice here but there is also opportunity for those who wish to take the risk and visit the US Disney parks at the same time. Visiting the Orlando resort may see the lowest attendance for some time due to the virus outbreak. I know when we visited in 2017, we went in the middle of Hurricane Irma. Virtually every ride was a walkon ( including Seven Dwarves Mine Train !!) - it was such a great experience. 

It is all going to come down to  your personal thoughts on the risk of travelling at this time.

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^ Big & costly move by Disney right there! After reading the latest micechat report only yesterday there was speculation that the Park would close temporarily, now it's happening. A good time to get those refurbs worked on!

At least till the end of March at this stage but I am sure that date will likely be extended. Also what about WDW, business as usual?

I wonder if other Parks like Universal will follow suit?

Also for our Parks here in OZ? Our Gold Coast Parks alone hire thousands of People, most on Casual & PPT low award wages. How much support would our Parks get from #Scottyfrommarketing's stimulus package? Even if they do get support, what's to say Operator's don't just pocket the cash & give their staff jack shit?

 

Spoke too soon, now Universal Hollywood - credit Micechat..

The health and safety of our team members and guests is always our top priority.  Out of an abundance of caution and in response to the guidance provided by the California Department of Public Health, Universal Studios Hollywood will temporarily close beginning Saturday, March 14. The theme park anticipates reopening on March 28 as we continue to monitor the situation.  

Universal CityWalk will remain open. We will provide timely updates as conditions evolve.

Edited by MickeyD
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USH has followed suit already.

DLR has closed because state government policy has forced them to do so, not because of any misguided concern for health and wellbeing of their guests.

Florida will remain open so long as the FL \ US government permits.

40 minutes ago, MickeyD said:

Also for our Parks here in OZ? Our Gold Coast Parks alone hire thousands of People, most on Casual & PPT low award wages. How much support would our Parks get from #Scottyfrommarketing's stimulus package? Even if they do get support, what's to say Operator's don't just pocket the cash & give their staff jack shit?

If the parks issue a 'stand down' they don't even have to pay their full time workers, if its out of their hands. This handy article should explain a lot about how australian workplaces will (or should) handle things... https://www.news.com.au/finance/work/at-work/coronavirus-can-my-boss-force-me-to-take-sick-leave/news-story/1dc1e3cc7a2d49b1784a42a03e9822c6

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I updated my post by the time you finished yours AlphaLimaBravo😀

I note that management don't have to pay support to their staff should they have to close, per my point. That doesn't make it right should they receive Govt support as an eligible part of the tourism sector affected;

How much support would our Parks get from #Scottyfrommarketing's stimulus package? Even if they do get support, what's to say Operator's don't just pocket the cash & give their staff jack shit?

 

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It seems unlikely that the Florida parks won't follow suit and close for at least a few weeks. They'll be harder hit because it's a vacation crowd whereas Disneyland is predominantly locals.

I've seen a few emails from Six Flags, Cedar Fair etc this week assuring that their parks will open as planned and they're taking extra precautions but that could well change in the current environment. All Broadway shows have just cancelled for the next month, so it's hard to see theme parks opening on schedule.

As for the Gold Coast parks, some kind of short-term closure is probably likely even if it's just a cautionary measure. 

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I read that and my mouth literally fell open. That now leaves only DLP open and I’m sure they will close soon since they have had 3 staff already test positive. When that happens it will be the first time since their existence that the world has went without a Disney park open. Also seeing as Mulan and a few other movies dates have been pushed back dark times are ahead for the Disney.

Edited by Mc coaster

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